What are the characteristics of a country in stage 5 of the demographic transition?

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  • Singapore Case Study
  • What are the characteristics of a country in stage five of the demographic transition?
  • What does a stage 5 country look like?
  • Is there a 5th stage of demographic transition?

Singapore Case Study

Singapore is a MEDC in Stage 5 of the DTM (Demographic Transition Model). This means it has a declining population as shown in the DTM diagram on the 'Population Models' page. In the table below are some key demographic indicators for Singapore. 

In 1957, Singapore's fertility rate peaked at 6 (children per women). Therefore the government attempted to manage the population change to achieve sustainable development, this was done through a anti-natalist policy. A anti-natalist policy is used where the population grows too quickly leading to the population outstripping resources. Thus, in the 1960s the government embarked on a population policy to decrease the population growth. 

Main Features of the the 1960s "Stop at Two Policy"

• They set up family planning clinics. 
• Organising "Stop at Two" media campaigns. (See below an example of an ad-campaign)
• Legalising abortions and sterilisation in certain circumstances. 
• Introducing social and economic incentives to encourage people to have less children. Such as, paid maternity leave, cheaper healthcare and free education and tax relief. 

How Successful was the first policy?

• Too successful! After the first policy the birth rate was constantly decreasing for the following 20 years. 
• The total fertility rate (TFR) went down to 1.4, well below the 2.1 replacement level. This was mostly due to the population policy but also Singaporeans suffer from high stress levels which decreases the desire for children.  50% of the women are in the workforce and are therefore putting their careers before marriage and children, the cost of raising children was also very high at the time which acted as a deterrent to having children.  
• Some say it led to the lower educated "over-reproducing" while the better-educated women were not replacing themselves. (Yap, 2013)

There were many consequences of this severe fall in the fertility rate: 

• Falling economic growth and tax base. 
• An ageing population occurred which put pressure on health services and pension payouts.
• Job vacancies were not being filled, 40% of the workforce was filled by migrants (this is not sustainable as migrant work can be unreliable as you do not know how long they want to stay for.)

Second Policy: "Have Three"

In 1980 the Singaporean government reversed the anti natal policy and in 1987 "Have Three" slogans appeared, see below.  

The "Stop at Two" policy was no more, the government realised this had to change when the total fertility rate (TFR) dropped substantially. The decline started in 1977 when the TFR registered at 1.82, a considerable drop from 2.11 in 1976. Thenceforth, the TFR continued to fall and by 1980 it reached 1.74 which urged the government to change its policy to a pro-natalist population policy. (Eresources, 2015). The changes in the fertility rate are shown below, the pink dotted line indicates the 2.1 replacement level. In order to persuade couples to have more children, previous anti-natalist measures were removed and new incentives to have children were put in their place. 

• "Have three" targeted young well-educated young women, this was done because they are more likely to be able to afford children.
• The new population policy (NPP) continued giving benefits to the higher-educated mothers although its primary goal was to provide incentives to married couples to produce a third (or fourth) child. (Saw, 1990)
• Qualified women receive £3750 for each of the first three children they have, along with tax exemptions. 
• Government part funded education. 
• Parents who had given birth to a third child were given allocation priority if they wanted to upgrade to larger Housing and Development Board flats. (Eresources, 2015)
• The Social Development Service (SDS) organised graduate blind dates. This was done to encourage people with a high caliber to get together. 
• Poor or less educated women were offered cash or housing benefits to be sterilised after two kids. 
• Maternity leave was also extended from eight to twelve weeks. 

Above are two examples of the advertising campaign of the "Have Three" policy. 

How Successful was "Have Three"? Any Negatives?

• The second policy was definitely more successful than the first policy as it didn't need to be changed.
• The second policy has been adapted over the years as the population has changed and it is still in place today, proving its success. 
• The fertility rate dropped to 1.2 in 2011, against the governments wishes, this was a problem as it is well below the 2.1 replacement level. 
• The birth rate also decreased which was not only caused by the population policy but also by the expanding development in Singapore which meant that women were more career focused and wanted to pursue this before families.  
• Singapore, like many other MEDCs, now has an ageing population.
• In some circumstances there were insufficient workers to fill the job vacancies due to the decrease in the birth rate. 

    It is clear from the information above that the second population policy "Have Three" was successful as it is still in existence today. However, it does cost the government a vast amount of money year on year and there are still some negative externalities that have emerged from it. Despite these issues, the "Have Three" policy has definitely proved itself to be very successful and the continued adaptation has allowed for this to happen.