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a method of systematically questioning a small, selected sample of respondents who are deemed to be representative of the total population

Opinion Polls are widely used by government, business, university scholars, political candidates, and voluntary groups to provide reasonably accurate data on public attitudes, beliefs, expectations, and behaviors

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Terms in this set (34)

Components of Public Opinion

Opinions, attitudes, values, short term and long term, partisan and ideological filters

Public Opinion

Citizens' views on politics and government actions.

Level of Conceptualization

The amount of complexity in an individual's beliefs about government and policy, and the extent to which those beliefs are consistent with each other and remain consistent over time.

Liberal-Conservative Ideology

A way of describing political beliefs in terms of a position on the spectrum running from liberal to moderate to conservative. Stable opinion that can change in response to events.

Latent Opinion

Opinion formed on the spot, when it is needed (as distinct from a deeply held opinion that is stable over time). When answering a survey question or the day before election day. Not a lot of people have ready opinions on a wide range of political questions.

Where do Public Opinions Come From?

Socialization: families and communities, events, group identity, politicians and other political actors

Political Socialization/Socialization: Families and Communities

The process by which an individual's political opinions are shaped by other people and the surrounding culture. Positive correlation between party identification and parents' ideologies. Genes and personality traits that influence behavior. People are socialized by their communities, people they interact with: neighbors, teachers, clergy, and others.

Events

Specific individual experiences. Other events shape the beliefs of large numbers of people in similar ways usually driven by national events. Recent events can cause a long term change in public opinions. Events can hold similar sway (disapproval in president causes disapproval in the party). People who don't have strong opinions/unfamiliar with the content are more likely than others to change their opinion. Generational effects that occur with age. Reaction to events depends on how political information is delivered through the media.

Group Identity

Social categories or groups, such as gender, race, and education level. Differences in opinions referred to as cohort effects. People learn about politics from the people around them (same region or era). Rely on others who "look like" them as a source of opinions. Group identities shape partisanship and picks the party that most people from group identify with (campaigns are aimed towards groups). Sharp differences among groups as well as similarities shows identity is not the only factor in public opinion.

Politicians and Other Political Actors

Political parties, party leaders, interest groups, leaders of religions, civic, and other large organizations. If a person's opinions seem reasonable you may adopt them as your own. Politicians describe proposals through arguments and images designed to tap the public's strong opinions with the goal of winning support for these proposals.

Mass Survey

A way to measure public opinion by interviewing a large sample of the population.

Population

The group of people that a researcher or pollster wants to study, such as senior citizens.

Sample

Within a population the group of people surveyed in order to gauge the whole populations opinion. Researchers use samples because it would be impossible to interview the entire population.

Problems in Measuring Public Opinion

Issues with survey methods, unreliable respondents, and accuracy.

Sampling Error

A calculation that describes what percentage of the people surveyed may not accurately represent the population being studied. Increasing the number of respondents lowers the sampling error.

Issues With Survey Methods

Random sampling is not an easy task. Face to face or contacting people by telephone may not get an answer. Internet polls do not have a sense of randomness. Question wording influences results. Asking people their opinions and including details about the policy can shape their answers to a different one.

Random Sample

A subsection of a population chosen to participate in a survey through a selection process in which every member of the population has an equal chance of being chosen. This kind of sampling improves the accuracy of public opinion data.

Unreliable Respondents

People are reluctant to reveal their opinions because they may not be socially acceptable so they tell the interviewer what they think they want to hear. Opinion formation on the spot that might change later on.

The Accuracy of Public Opinion

Not interested or don't take the survey seriously lead to quick thoughtless responses. Respondents form opinions on the basis of whatever considerations come to mind. Unwillingness to admit they don't know about something and make up answers. Subject to influence from other politicians. Many of the questions have a range of views.

Ideological Polarization

The effect on public opinion when many citizens move away from moderate positions toward either end of the political spectrum, identifying themselves as either liberals or conservatives. Strong majority of Americans say that they are moderate or independent (little evidence of polarization). Some survey questions are designed to establish party polarization because they only offer two alternatives. Eliminate questions where the vast majority agrees. Survey responses that reveal conflict over broad principles do not tell is whether these differences translate into conflicts over specific policy questions.

What is the trend in the public's trust in government and their views of government?

Disenchanted and untrusting of the government. Elected officials lose touch with the people and don't care what average people think. Government is wasteful and inefficient. Declining levels in trust due to Watergate scandal and economic downturn. Tend to be happier about district representative.

Policy Mood

The level of public support for expanding the government's role in society; whether the public wants government action on a specific issue. Collective demands of the public. Liberal direction means conditions are ripe for an expansion of the federal government involving more spending and new programs. Conservative direction means elected officials are likely to enact smaller increases in government spending and fewer new programs.

Iraq and Afghanistan

2006 negative public opinion whereas 2008 was positive public opinion because there were larger concerns. 2008 50% more people believed that the war in Iraq was going well compared to in Afghanistan. Reveal the complexity of political calculations about American's in Afghanistan and support wouldn't be automatic.

Economic Conditions

2006-2007 economy was in a distant second to war but after end of 2007-2008 it became more important as the economic downturn increased. Base their judgements on whatever considerations take place and personal experiences so policies designed to improve economic conditions may prove widely unpopular if they do not address these considerations.

Health Care

2008-2009 showed people worried about losing their health coverage and complained about the high costs of health care. Only a third approved of reform proposals because thought they included other provisions and enacting them would lead to increased health care costs. Providing information to people did not change their minds.

Immigration

Level of conflict among elected officials rather than the public. Two-thirds of respondents favored allowing illegal immigrants to become citizens after several years . Failure to reform is due to conflict within congress, pressures from small number of voters who have intense preferences, or recent economic concerns have overshadowed immigration policy.

Gay Rights

Majority favor allowing gay couples to form civil unions but less support allowing gay marriage. Disagreement due to partisan identification. Support is higher for younger voters.

Climate Change

Most Americans agree that it is happening but democrats believe it's caused by human doing whereas republicans believe it is a natural phenomena and humans cannot affect it.

Why Does Public Opinion Matter?

It is relevant and it can influence government.

Exit Poll

Poll of voters taken immediately after they have exited the polling stations.

Push Polling

Individual or organization attempts to influence or alter the view of respondents under the guise of conducting a poll. Usually worded with innuendoes that hint at party affiliation.

Confidence Level

Typically 95%. Deals with the margin of error.

How does question wording affect polling?

There is an obvious bias and they can shape the question to provoke a certain answer. People do not share the same understanding of terms. People are too willing to answer even if they don't know.

Impact of Public Opinion Polls on Democracy (Gallup)

Public opinion polls enhance the democratic process by providing elected officials with a picture of what Americans think about current events.

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What is the form of opinion known as public opinion?

Public opinion is the collective opinion on a specific topic or voting intention relevant to a society. It is the people's views on matters affecting them.

What is public opinion quizlet?

public opinion. definition: the distribution of individual preferences or evaluations of a given issue, candidate, or institution within a specific population.

How is public opinion formed quizlet?

What are the four sources of public opinion? Among the factors that influence public opinion are a person's background, the mass media, public officials, and interest groups.

What is public opinion polls quizlet?

public opinion polls. scientific efforts to estimate what an entire group thinks about an issue by asking a smaller sample of the group for its opinion.